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Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32317/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is the M8.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-29T12:55Z from AR 3762 with associated dimming, EUV wave, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T18:35Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-29 16:03
 - Time at C2: 2024-07-29 13:25
 - Radial speed: 1077.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N01W26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 729.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-31 18:35 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.18 hours)
Lead Time: 65.03 hour(s)
Difference: 22.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-29T23:45Z
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